The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to take much comfort from ANZ Australian Job Ads data for September showing ads eased a modest 0.5% m/m. The decline followed a small revision to the August data but the job ads gauge is only 0.8% lower then its June peak. Job ads are 56.5% above their pre-pandemic levels. There is more than one vacancy per unemployed person.
ANZ still expects the unemployment rate to fall below 3% by early next year compared to 3.5% in August as calculated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Policymakers have been concerned about the interplay between inflation, a tight jobs market and corporate price setting behaviour. (See MNI INSIGHT: RBA Still Wants Wages Growth, Just Not Too Much)