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NEW ZEALAND: ANZ Survey Signals Soft Q1 But Likely Recovery Over 2025

NEW ZEALAND
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ANZ February business confidence improved 4 points to 58.4, while the activity outlook was slightly lower at 45.1 after 45.8. The Q1 average of both measures though is below Q4 signalling a more cautious view on the economy going forward. In line with this, past own activity fell 3 points to -3, which ANZ notes is the best indicator of GDP. The RBNZ signalled this month that consecutive 25bp rate cuts are likely in April and May.

  • Price and cost measures had ticked up in January. In February, cost & wage expectations eased and inflation expectations a year ahead moderated 0.2pp to 2.5%, but pricing intentions rose for the third straight month to their highest since April. The RBNZ noted that the weaker NZD was adding to inflation volatility. 

NZ ANZ business price/cost components

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ANZ February business confidence improved 4 points to 58.4, while the activity outlook was slightly lower at 45.1 after 45.8. The Q1 average of both measures though is below Q4 signalling a more cautious view on the economy going forward. In line with this, past own activity fell 3 points to -3, which ANZ notes is the best indicator of GDP. The RBNZ signalled this month that consecutive 25bp rate cuts are likely in April and May.

  • Price and cost measures had ticked up in January. In February, cost & wage expectations eased and inflation expectations a year ahead moderated 0.2pp to 2.5%, but pricing intentions rose for the third straight month to their highest since April. The RBNZ noted that the weaker NZD was adding to inflation volatility. 

NZ ANZ business price/cost components

Keep reading...Show less