POWER
Poland’s April dropped from the previous session amid upward revisions of average temperatures in Warsaw and generally higher temps on the month into April. This offset gains in European coal and EU ETS. Spot prices are likely to be weighed down on 6 March, with costs elevated over 6-7 March as wind begins to decline.
- Poland’s April baseload power settled at PLN422.10/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN423.39/MWh on 28 February, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.6% at 71.41 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas APR 25 up 0.9% at 44.71 EUR/MWh
- Rotterdam Coal APR 25 up 2.7% at 95.15 USD/MT
- The April contract traded 11 times in 13 lots from 19 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- The contract opened at PLN419/MWh – the low for the day – before rising to PLN422/MWh and ending at a daily high of PLN423/MWh at the end of the session.
- Average temperatures in Warsaw were revised up over 4-8 March by as much as 0.5C and will remain above the seasonal average until 11 March before declining and flipping below on 13 March.
- However, temperatures are seen being on a general upward trend heading into April and are seen climbing to as high as 10.2C on 15 April.
- Closer in, the day-ahead dropped to PLN403.76/MWh for Tuesday delivery from PLN432.53/MWh for Monday as Polish wind is expected at a 69% load factor tomorrow from 66% today.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 70% load factor on 5 March (Wed) – which could drop prices further.
- Wind will then be between 7-38% load factors over 6-7 March (Tue-Wed) – which could see power prices climb.
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