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April ECB Cut Remains Priced

STIR

ECB-dated OIS contracts continue to price the first 25bps rate cut for the April 2024 meeting, following yesterday's soft November flash HICP data.

  • The December 2024 meeting currently has 113bps priced in, up from just over 80bps early Monday.
  • The Euribor strip firms slightly, sitting flat to +3.0 ticks with Reds outperforming. A combination of bond-supportive month-end flows and a lack of extension in the truce between Israel-Hamas are potentially providing support at the margin.
  • Overnight, ECB's Nagel weighed in on the November inflation data with an expected hawkish lean.
  • Today's docket is highlighted by final manufacturing PMIs across the Eurozone (most notably Spain and Italy, who do not have a flash release).
  • There are also scheduled comments from ECB's Lagarde and Elderson at the Banking Supervision Forum and de Cos at a separate banking event.
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