April Inflation Confirmed At +2.4% Y/Y, Core Close To +4% Y/Y

Statistics Poland confirmed April inflation at +2.4% Y/Y, in line with the flash reading, with the sequential figure revised a tad higher to +1.1% M/M from the preliminary estimate of +1.0%.

• ING note that CPI rebounded to +2.4% Y/Y mostly due to the re-introduction of VAT rate on food, with core prices seen rising relatively fast (+0.5% M/M), chiefly due to robust wage growth. They reiterate that interest-rate cuts are unlikely this year.
• mBank say that inflation was in line with expectations, while core inflation was likely at +4.1% Y/Y. They believe that the momentum of core inflation is slightly higher than based on preliminary data, but not very different to recent outturns: +0.4% M/M.
• The Polish Economic Institute note that inflation rose to +2.4% Y/Y i.a. due to higher food prices (the re-introduction of a higher VAT rate) and rising fuel prices. They expect a continued acceleration in headline inflation in the coming months. Core inflation was at +4% Y/Y, according to their estimate.