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Are US LT Yields Too Low, or Is Uncertainty Too High?

US
  • Inflationary pressures continue to intensify in most of the developed and EM economies with the headline and core CPI surging to 4.2% and 3% in April, respectively, in the US.
  • However, long-term US bond yields have remained low in recent weeks, with the 10Y oscillating around 1.60% following the 70bps spike in Q1.
  • Interestingly, if we scatter plot the 10Y yield and core CPI using monthly data since 1985, we find that US yields were much higher (6%+) the last time core CPI was standing at 3% (December 1995).
  • Are US yields too low, or is the uncertainty over the economic outlook too high driving investors to increase their holdings of Treasuries in case market price volatility starts to rise again?

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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