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Are we close to a no confidence vote for Johnson?

UK
  • There is lots of media speculation this morning about whether 54 letters have already been sent (or will be sent today) from Conservative MPs to raise no confidence grievances with Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Under the Conservative Party rules, this would trigger a no confidence vote among Tory MPs, and it is not clear which way that would go at present.
  • We continue to be asked whether this matters for UK assets, and as we noted yesterday, we tend to look at this in three ways: will there be a change in monetary policy, will there be a change in fiscal policy and will there be a change in certainty? In terms of monetary and fiscal policy, both Sunak and Truss (the leading candidates) are unlikely to change economic policy substantially enough for any discernable difference in monetary or fiscal policy, so the impact would purely be on certainty. We don’t think there has been a big hit to sterling assets but we note that there could be a small short-term bounce in sterling asset prices if a new leader was seen to be able to unify the Conservative party and provide more certainty going forward.
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