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ARGENTINA: Analyst Inflation Expectations Edge Lower

ARGENTINA
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  • The BCRA’s analyst survey, released yesterday, revealed that economists see annual inflation slowing to 120% y/y by year-end, down from 123.6% in last month’s survey. The annual rate is currently tracking at 209%. Next year, CPI inflation is seen falling to 31.4% y/y by year-end, down from 35.0% in the previous survey. Meanwhile, analyst GDP growth estimates edged higher, with the economy seen contracting by 3.6% this year (vs. -3.8% previously), before rebounding by 3.6% in 2025.
  • No macro data are due today, with attention on October CPI inflation next Tuesday. JP Morgan estimates October CPI at 2.9% m/m, driving the annual inflation rate down to 193.7% y/y. This would continue the deceleration in the monthly inflation rate from 3.5% in September and the 4.3% monthly average through August.
  • Meanwhile, the deadline extension for the government’s tax exemption programme is due to expire today.
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  • The BCRA’s analyst survey, released yesterday, revealed that economists see annual inflation slowing to 120% y/y by year-end, down from 123.6% in last month’s survey. The annual rate is currently tracking at 209%. Next year, CPI inflation is seen falling to 31.4% y/y by year-end, down from 35.0% in the previous survey. Meanwhile, analyst GDP growth estimates edged higher, with the economy seen contracting by 3.6% this year (vs. -3.8% previously), before rebounding by 3.6% in 2025.
  • No macro data are due today, with attention on October CPI inflation next Tuesday. JP Morgan estimates October CPI at 2.9% m/m, driving the annual inflation rate down to 193.7% y/y. This would continue the deceleration in the monthly inflation rate from 3.5% in September and the 4.3% monthly average through August.
  • Meanwhile, the deadline extension for the government’s tax exemption programme is due to expire today.