MNI: US Consumers See Lower Inflation, Better Jobs - NY Fed
MNI (WASHINGTON) - U.S. consumers expect inflation will fall over the one-, three-, and five-year-horizons, according to the latest survey of consumer expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Americans anticipate inflation over the next year will fall to 2.87%, the lowest level since October 2020.
Their expectations about inflation in three years declined 0.2pp to 2.54% and at the five year horizon declined a tenth to 2.77%, the lowest since March.
More Americans' expectations about the labor market improved, with households reporting a lower likelihood of higher unemployment and job loss. Mean unemployment expectations, or the mean probability that the unemployment rate will be higher in a year, decreased by 1.7pp to 34.5%, the lowest reading since February 2022.
Households also reported a lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months, according to the survey, with the average decreasing 0.3pp to 13.9%. This was the first decrease since May.