Armenia/Azerbaijan Skirmishes, Escalation Risk w/Russia Distracted

Fighting has broken out on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Caucuses, with Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan confirming the death of 49 of his troops. Azerbaijan has not yet released a total. The fighting appears to be the most severe since the war of 2020, which saw Azerbaijan secure substantial areas in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh province.

• Skirmishes on the border between the two nations are frequent, and Russia (as well as the EU) will often act as a mediator between the two. However, with both Moscow and Brussels preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, there is the prospect that efforts to cool tensions between two Caucuses nations are less focused than in previous years.
• Fighting is unlikely to threaten any of the oil or gas pipelines travelling from Azerbaijan to Turkey or Georgia, with the lines kept away from Nagorno-Karabakh by design.