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NEW ZEALAND: ASB believe that "increases in the NZ minimum wage to $20 per hour
by 2021 could be the catalyst for a turnaround in wage inflation in New Zealand.
The proposed imposition of Industry-Wide Fair Pay Agreements by the Government
and move towards collective bargaining is likely to add to wage and consumer
price inflation at the margin. Our estimates are tentative but suggest that the
minimum wage increases and the fair pay agreements could add up to 0.5 to 1.0
percentage points per annum to wage inflation and between 0.3 to 0.7 percentage
points to annual consumer price inflation through to mid-2022. We caution that
employees will need to be realistic with their wage demands, or the consequence
could be higher interest rates."