ASB's musing; Q3 GDP lifted 0.6%,........>

DATA REACT: ASB's musing; Q3 GDP lifted 0.6%, stronger than ASB's forecast of

0.4%, but in line with market expectations (0.6%) and the RBNZ's November

Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) forecast (0.7%). Revisions to previous growth

estimates, as a result of annual benchmarking, added a sizeable 1% upward

revision to GDP (cumulative over two years). The picture of a stronger economy

should boost the RBNZs confidence of inflation momentum picking up and the RBNZ

may bring forward the timing of its forecast rate hikes at the February MPS (the

RBNZ currently does not expect rate hikes until roughly late 2019). We currently

expect the RBNZ to start lifting interest rates in early 2019, although we will

be closely assessing the impact of stronger growth and its relationship with

inflation over the coming months.