GLOBAL
Global trade volumes picked up in January according to CPB data. Exports drove a 0.9% m/m rise in trade, the largest monthly increase since March last year, to be up 0.4% y/y after falling 0.5% y/y in December. Global export volumes rose 1.8% m/m to be up 2.5% y/y up from 1.0% y/y driven by Asia. Manufacturing PMI data and momentum in metal prices are pointing to a moderate recovery in trade and IP but given rising oil prices and risks to shipping the outlook is very uncertain.
- While export volume growth from both developed (DM) and emerging markets (EM) was positive in January, the recovery to date has been driven by the latter. EM exports rose 4% m/m to be up 6.4% y/y up from 4.1% y/y in December and while momentum is subdued it is positive. DM exports rose 0.7% m/m to be up 0.4% y/y improving from -0.8%.
Global export volume growth y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/CPB
- There are variations within each block but Asian exporters are the outperformers within both DM and EM. While euro area, UK and US annual export volume growth all shrank, Japan and advanced Asia saw positive growth, especially the latter rising 9.6% y/y.
- In EM, China’s exports rose 15.4% y/y and emerging Asia’s 3.8%. Shipments from eastern Europe rose 5.3% y/y but they shrank from Latin America and Africa/Middle East.
Asian export volume growth y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/CPB
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