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ASIA FX: SEA FX Losing Ground Amid Strong USD Backdrop

ASIA FX
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South East Asia FX is mostly on the front foot from a USD standpoint, although this largely reflects USD gains post onshore closes from yesterday. Losses haven't extended much beyond 0.30%. Regional equities are mixed, with the strongest gains seen in HK and China markets. SEA equity trends are more mixed.

  • USD/THB appears to be finding some selling interest above 33.50, although remains close to recent highs. Today's highs in the pair were marked near 33.57, just short of Oct 8 highs. The pair was last 33.50/55, still wedged between the 20 and 50-day EMAs. As we noted late yesterday, official push back around FX outperformance appears to be growing with the Finance Ministry stating the FX rate should be 34.5. Consumer confidence numbers fell for Sep, with economic confidence to 48.8 from 50.2. This continues the recent trend move down. It also underscores the need for stimulus to support growth.
  • Spot USD/PHP is up a further 0.30% to 56.15/20. We are off earlier highs though near 57.29. The 1 month NDF tracks near 57.20. Earlier data showed the August trade deficit was very close to forecasts, printed just under $4.4bn. Exports rose 0.3%y/y (against a -7.1% forecast), but imports were also above expectations at +2.74% y/y.
  • USD/IDR is up to 15655, so consolidating the recent move back above 15600. The 1 month NDF is around 0.20% stronger in IDR terms though, last near 15680/85, after ending Wednesday NY trade at 15714. The better regional equity tone is likely helping IDR at the margins.
  • USD/MYR is holding above 4.2900, but hasn't tested above 4.3000 at this stage. Like USD/THB this pair remains wedged between its 20-day EMA on the downside (near 4.2450) and the 50-day on the topside (4.3330). 
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South East Asia FX is mostly on the front foot from a USD standpoint, although this largely reflects USD gains post onshore closes from yesterday. Losses haven't extended much beyond 0.30%. Regional equities are mixed, with the strongest gains seen in HK and China markets. SEA equity trends are more mixed.

  • USD/THB appears to be finding some selling interest above 33.50, although remains close to recent highs. Today's highs in the pair were marked near 33.57, just short of Oct 8 highs. The pair was last 33.50/55, still wedged between the 20 and 50-day EMAs. As we noted late yesterday, official push back around FX outperformance appears to be growing with the Finance Ministry stating the FX rate should be 34.5. Consumer confidence numbers fell for Sep, with economic confidence to 48.8 from 50.2. This continues the recent trend move down. It also underscores the need for stimulus to support growth.
  • Spot USD/PHP is up a further 0.30% to 56.15/20. We are off earlier highs though near 57.29. The 1 month NDF tracks near 57.20. Earlier data showed the August trade deficit was very close to forecasts, printed just under $4.4bn. Exports rose 0.3%y/y (against a -7.1% forecast), but imports were also above expectations at +2.74% y/y.
  • USD/IDR is up to 15655, so consolidating the recent move back above 15600. The 1 month NDF is around 0.20% stronger in IDR terms though, last near 15680/85, after ending Wednesday NY trade at 15714. The better regional equity tone is likely helping IDR at the margins.
  • USD/MYR is holding above 4.2900, but hasn't tested above 4.3000 at this stage. Like USD/THB this pair remains wedged between its 20-day EMA on the downside (near 4.2450) and the 50-day on the topside (4.3330).