MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilts Through Support
Price Signal Summary – Gilts Through Support
- A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback still appears to be a correction. Price is trading closer to its recent highs. MA studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Eurostoxx 50 futures finished Wednesday trade well, but next resistance remains out of reach for now at the September highs. Key short-term support to watch is 4935.12, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- USDCAD traded higher Tuesday, confirming an extension of the bull cycle that started Sep 25. The move higher this week has resulted in a break of resistance at 1.3647, the Sep 19 high and a key resistance. EURJPY is holding on to its recent gains and remains above the 50-day EMA, at 161.67. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 163.49, the Sep 27 high (pierced), and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of both levels would highlight a potential reversal.GBPUSD maintains a softer short-term tone following last week’s sell-off, and the pair continues to trade at its lows. Cable has breached support at the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA at 1.3110. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and open 1.3049.
- WTI futures traded higher Monday as the pair extended the rally that started Oct 1. Tuesday’s reversal is for now, considered corrective. Recent gains suggest potential for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is on $77.40, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg. The latest short-term retracement in Gold is considered corrective. The trend condition is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment.
- Bund futures continue to trade closer to their latest lows. Recent weakness has resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this undermines a recent bullish outlook. A continuation would further strengthen a developing bearish threat. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. The Oct 4 impulsive sell-off, and this week’s move lower, reinforces a bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. The break strengthens the downtrend, signalling scope for a deeper retracement.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Tone
- RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 3: 1.1214/34 High Sep 25 / 1.618 proj Jun 26-Jul 17-Aug 1 swing
- RES 2: 1.1067/1144 20-day EMA / High Oct 1
- RES 1: 1.1033 50-Day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0941 @ 07:32 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: 1.0936 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 1.0909 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 1.0881 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0778 Low Aug 1
EURUSD is in consolidation and maintains a softer tone, trading at its recent lows. Support at 1.1002, the Sep 11 low, has been breached. This level marks the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern on the daily chart. The break lower strengthens a bearish theme, with the show below Fibonacci support at 1.0945 a further signal of weakness. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1055, the 20-day EMA. First resistance is at 1.1033, the 50-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 1.3434 High Sep 26 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 2: 1.3305 High Oct 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3193 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3076 @ 07:43 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: 1.3056 Low Oct 09
- SUP 2: 1.3049 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.3002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 4: 1.2959 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
GBPUSD maintains a softer short-term tone following last week’s sell-off, and the pair continues to trade at its lows. Cable has breached support at the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA at 1.3110. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and open 1.3049, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose 1.3002, the Sep 11 low. Initial resistance to watch is 1.3193, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8453 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8434 High Oct 3
- PRICE: 0.8366 @ 07:45 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: 0.8353/11 Low Oct 4 / 1 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
The Oct 3 rally in EURGBP highlights a possible reversal. Note that the cross is trading close to the base of its 0.9300 - 0.8300 multi-year range and a key area of support. For now, moving average studies are unchanged and remain in a bear-mode position - this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Key support is at 0.8311, the Oct 1 low. Key resistance is 0.8464, the Sep 11 high and a reversal trigger. First resistance to watch is 0.8434, Oct 23 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 153.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.94 Low Jul 25
- RES 2: 150.76 50.0% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.39 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 149.08 @ 07:51 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: 145.65 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 141.65 Low Sep 30
- SUP 3: 140.45 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 139.58 Low Sep 16 and the bear trigger
USDJPY continues to trade closer to its recent highs and a bull cycle remains in play. Recent gains resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, a bullish development that undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 149.39, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish outlook. Initial firm support is 145.65, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal.
EURJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 163.61 High Oct 10
- PRICE: 163.12 @ 07:53 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: 161.00 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 158.11/155.15 Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is holding on to its recent gains and remains above the 50-day EMA, at 161.67. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 163.49, the Sep 27 high (pierced), and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of both levels would highlight a potential reversal. For now, trend signals are bearish and gains are still considered corrective. A reversal lower and a resumption of bearish price action would open 154.42, Aug 5 low and the bear trigger.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6942 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6889 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 0.6796 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6730 @ 07:56 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: 0.6708 Low Oct 9
- SUP 2: 0.6646 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6576 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
The latest pullback in AUDUSD highlights a short-term corrective cycle and for now, a bearish theme remains intact. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average, at 0.6750, would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 0.6942, the Sep 30 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Clears Key Resistance
- RES 4: 1.3791 High Aug 7
- RES 3: 1.3745 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3722 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 1.3695 High Oct 9
- PRICE: 1.3661 @ 16:34 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 1.3571 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3473/3420 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
- SUP 4: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Aug 5 bull run
USDCAD traded higher Tuesday, confirming an extension of the bull cycle that started Sep 25. The move higher this week has resulted in a break of resistance at 1.3647, the Sep 19 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level signals a possible reversal. Sights are on 1.3683 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3571, the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 137.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 136.20 High Oct 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 135.24 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 133.95/134.29 50- and 20-day EMA values
- PRICE: 133.18 @ 06:53 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: 133.13 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 133.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: 132.25 Low Jul 29
Bund futures continue to trade closer to their latest lows. Recent weakness has resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this undermines a recent bullish outlook. A continuation would further strengthen a developing bearish threat. This would open 132.65, the Sep 2 low. Initial resistance is at 134.29, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Clears Support
- RES 4: 120.650 High Oct 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: 120.190 High Oct 3
- RES 2: 119.870 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 119.350/119.570 High Oct 7 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 118.910 @ 05:55 BST Oct 9
- SUP 1: 118.870 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 117.789 123.6% retrace projection of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull leg
Bobl futures are trading at their recent lows. The reversal from the Oct 1 high, undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The contract has traded through a number of short-term retracement points and has breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would open 118.580, the Sep 3 low. Initial resistance is 119.627, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Breaking Down
- RES 4: 107.450 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.225/335 High Oct 3 / 1 and key resistance
- RES 2: 107.110 High Oct 7
- RES 1: 106.948 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 106.705 @ 06:59 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: 106.690 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 3: 105.907 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 105.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
A short-term bearish threat is firming further in Schatz futures following the extended reversal from the Oct 1 high. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and breached not only 106.815, the Sep 18 low, but also 106.712, a key Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 106.970, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would signal a possible reversal.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 100.00 High Sep 23
- RES 3: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 98.51 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 96.93/98.11 High Oct 7 / Low Sep 2
- PRICE: 96.60 @ Close Oct 9
- SUP 1: 96.20 Low Oct 8
- SUP 2: 96.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 95.47 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 94.99 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. The Oct 4 impulsive sell-off, and this week’s move lower, reinforces a bearish theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. The break strengthens the downtrend, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. 96.23, the 1.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing, has been pierced. This exposes 96.00. Initial firm resistance is seen at 98.11, the Sep 2 low.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Has Breached The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 121.67/122.62 High Oct 3 / 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.31 @ 07:09 BST
- SUP 1: 120.17 Low Sep 19
- SUP 2: 119.58 38.2% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.34 Low Jul 26
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish. However, a short-term bearish threat exists for now, following the reversal from the Oct 1 high. This move down highlights a corrective cycle. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower opens 120.17, the Sep 19 low and the next important support. A break of this support would expose 119.58, a Fibonacci retracement. The bull trigger is 122.62, the Oct 1 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5048.00/5106.00 High Oct 1 / High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 4998.00 @ 07:11 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: 4935.12 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4848.00/4757.00 Low Sep 13 / Low Sep 6 and 10
- SUP 3: 4813.00 Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures finished Wednesday trade well, but next resistance remains out of reach for now at the September highs. Key short-term support to watch is 4935.12, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Recently, the contract breached resistance at 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme. Key resistance and bull trigger is 5106.00, the Sep 30 high.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: 5854.15 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 1: 5846.50 High Oct
- PRICE: 5833.25 @ 07:18 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: 5752.03/5724.00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: 5680.78 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 5451.25 Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback still appears to be a correction. Price is trading closer to its recent highs. MA studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5868.50, a Fibonacci projection, and 5900.00 further out. Initial support to watch is 5752.03, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. Key support lies at 5680.78 the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Short-Term Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $86.86 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $85.54 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $83.02 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $81.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- PRICE: $77.22 @ 07:20 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: $75.05 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures traded sharply higher last week and again Monday. The rally extends the bull leg that started Sep 9 and suggests that the pullback beginning Tuesday is - for now - a correction. A resumption of gains would open $81.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and expose $83.02, the Jul 18 high. Initial firm support is $75.05, the 20-day EMA. A clear break would be seen as an early reversal signal.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $82.59 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.75 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $78.46 - High Oct 8
- PRICE: $73.87 @ 07:23 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: $71.58 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $66.33/64.61 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures traded higher Monday as the pair extended the rally that started Oct 1. Tuesday’s reversal is for now, considered corrective. Recent gains suggest potential for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is on $77.40, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is $71.58, the 20-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: $2708.4 - 2.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2720.5 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2690.2 - 2.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2615.5 @ 07:25 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: $2614.9/2604.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 8
- SUP 2: $2584.9 - Low Sep 20
- SUP 3: $2548.8 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
The latest short-term retracement in Gold is considered corrective. The trend condition is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $2690.2, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2614.9, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Phase
- RES 4: $33.738 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $31.778/32.963 - High Oct 8 / 4 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $30.565 @ 07:28 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: $30.166 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $29.489 - Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. Attention turns to support at the 50-day EMA, at $30.166. A clear break of this EMA would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would signal the end of the correction and refocus attention on $32.963, the Oct 4 high.