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ASIA FX: THB Leads SEA FX Losses, Amid Central Bank Concerns

ASIA FX
GlobalEM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market NewsRegion

In South East Asia, the bias has been for a firmer USD. USD/THB gains have been the standout, the pair up over 1% at one stage. We hit highs of 34.74 earlier, but no sit slightly lower, last near 34.72. Outside of broader USD gains, the baht has suffered amid reports that a BoT critic and former member of the ruling Pheu Thai party was picked as the new central bank Chairman (per BBG). 

  • The natural upside target for the pair in the near term is likely to 35.00. We approaching overbought territory based off the RSI (14) but there may not be much official pushback to baht weakness in the near term, given some parts of the government clearly want a weaker FX level.
  • Elsewhere. USD/MYR has pushed above 4.4300, to be 0.50% weaker in ringgit terms. Spill over from the weaker yuan is in play. The Ringgit has now broken through the 100-day EMA of 4.4151 with the next key technical level the 200-day EMA at 4.5037.
  • Spot USD/IDR is also higher by a similar magnitude, putting the pair back to 15760/65. Recent highs have been above 15830, bit IDR has outperformed post the US election results. Note - Biden to Host Indonesia’s Prabowo at White House on Tuesday (source: BBG).
  • Spot USD/PHP has pushed above 58.80, fresh highs back to early July. Upside focus is likely to rest on a test of 59.00. 
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In South East Asia, the bias has been for a firmer USD. USD/THB gains have been the standout, the pair up over 1% at one stage. We hit highs of 34.74 earlier, but no sit slightly lower, last near 34.72. Outside of broader USD gains, the baht has suffered amid reports that a BoT critic and former member of the ruling Pheu Thai party was picked as the new central bank Chairman (per BBG). 

  • The natural upside target for the pair in the near term is likely to 35.00. We approaching overbought territory based off the RSI (14) but there may not be much official pushback to baht weakness in the near term, given some parts of the government clearly want a weaker FX level.
  • Elsewhere. USD/MYR has pushed above 4.4300, to be 0.50% weaker in ringgit terms. Spill over from the weaker yuan is in play. The Ringgit has now broken through the 100-day EMA of 4.4151 with the next key technical level the 200-day EMA at 4.5037.
  • Spot USD/IDR is also higher by a similar magnitude, putting the pair back to 15760/65. Recent highs have been above 15830, bit IDR has outperformed post the US election results. Note - Biden to Host Indonesia’s Prabowo at White House on Tuesday (source: BBG).
  • Spot USD/PHP has pushed above 58.80, fresh highs back to early July. Upside focus is likely to rest on a test of 59.00.