Asia-Pacific Week Ahead

     AUSTRALIA

     It's a busy week full of monthly and quarterly data releases, with the

highlights being the RBA's monthly cash rate statement on Tuesday and Q3 GDP

data on Wednesday.

     Data

     Monday, 11:30 am AEDT (0030 GMT): ANZ publishes job ads survey for

November. The data is expected to show a small rise leading to further slowing

in trend growth rate.

     Monday, 11:30 am AEDT (0030 GMT): The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

publishes business indicators survey for Q3. Inventories are expected to be flat

q/q after a 0.4% fall in Q2 but could add up to 0.3 percentage point to Q3 GDP.

The data will also show company profits for Q3 with the MNI survey median

forecast for a flat q/q reading after a 4.5% fall in Q2.

     Tuesday, 9:30 am AEDT (2230 GMT Monday): AI Group publishes its performance

of services index (last 51.4 points).

     Tuesday, 11:30 am AEDT (0030 GMT): ABS publishes retail sales for October,

with the MNI survey median forecast for a 0.3% q/q rise after a flat outcome the

month before.

     Tuesday, 11:30 am AEDT (0030 GMT): ABS to publish balance of payments data

for Q3 which is expected to show net exports contributed 0.3 percentage point to

Q3 GDP -- the same as Q2. The data is also expected to show the current account

deficit narrowed slightly to A$9.1 billion in Q3 from a deficit of A$9.56

billion in Q2.

     Wednesday, 11:30 am AEDT (0030 GMT). ABS to publish GDP data for Q3. The

MNI survey median forecast is for 0.7% q/q growth, boosting y/y growth to +3.0%

(from +1.8% in Q2) due mainly to effect of low base of last year.

     Thursday, 9:30 am AEDT (2230 GMT Wednesday): The AI Group/HIA publishes its

performance of construction index for November. The index stood at 53.2 in

October.

     Thursday, 11:30 am AEDT (0030 GMT): The ABS publishes international trade

data for October, with the MNI survey median forecast for the trade surplus to

narrow to A$1.2 billion from A$1.745 billion in September.

     Friday, 11:30 am AEDT (0030 GMT): The ABS publishes housing finance data

for October. The MNI median forecast is for a 2.8% m/m fall compared with a 2.3%

fall in September.

     RBA

     Tuesday, 2:30 pm AEDT (0330 GMT): The RBA will publish its cash rate

decision. The unanimous view of analysts is that the rate will be left on hold

at 1.5%. The focus will be on any small changes in the commentary that would

give insight on when the next rate move might be.

     NEW ZEALAND

     It's a quiet week with no major economic data releases due.

     RBNZ

     Tuesday, 1:15 pm NZDT (0515 GMT): RBNZ to publish a speech by Acting

Governor Grant Spencer entitled, "Low inflation and its implications for

monetary policy."

     JAPAN

     The highlight of the week Friday, when revised third quarter gross domestic

product will be released. It is expected to be revised up slightly from the

initial estimate as business investment appears to be firmer than initially

reported.

     Bank of Japan

     Monday, 1 pm JST (0400 GMT): BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Banque de

France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau speak at a luncheon they cohost at a

Europlace conference in Tokyo.

     Wednesday, 10:30 am JST (0130 GMT): BOJ board member Takako Masai, a former

commercial banker with a financial trading background, speaks to business

leaders in Kobe City, western Japan.

     Wednesday, 2:30 pm JST (0530 GMT) BOJ's Masai holds a news conference in

Kobe.

     Thursday, 12 pm JST (0300 GMT) BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks

     at a Tokyo seminar hosted by Kyodo News.

     Data

     Monday, 2 pm JST (0500 GMT): The Cabinet Office releases the Consumer

Confidence Survey for November. Japan's consumer confidence index rose 0.6 point

to 44.5 in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the second consecutive rise

after +0.6 point to 43.9 in September.

     Thursday, 2 pm JST (0500 GMT): The Cabinet Office releases preliminary

October indexes of leading, coincident and lagging indicators.

     Thursday, 2 pm JST (0500 GMT) The BOJ releases its supply-side Consumption

Activity Index for October. The index fell a real 0.3% on a

     seasonally adjusted basis in September. the second straight drop, after

falling 0.9% in August.

     Friday, 8:50 am (2350 GMT): The Cabinet Office releases revised (second

preliminary) GDP for July-September. The median economist forecasts: GDP +0.4%

on quarter, or an annualized +1.5%, up from a preliminary +0.3% on quarter, or

an annualized +1.4%; capital investment +0.3% q/q, up from a preliminary +0.2%;

the contribution of private-sector inventories +0.3 percentage point, up from a

preliminary +0.2 percentage point; public investment -2.9% q/q, down from a

preliminary -2.5%.

     Friday, 9 am JST (0000 GMT): The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

releases preliminary October wages. Total monthly average cash earnings per

regular employee in Japan rose 0.9% on year in September, posting the second

straight year-on-year rise after +0.7% in August, but continued to mark a slight

drop from a year before, down 0.1%, after adjusted for inflation. Real wages

last posted a year-on-year rise (+0.1%) in December 2016.

     Japanese Government Bonds

     Downward pressure on Japanese government bond yields may emerge

     temporarily following the recent strong Treasury discount bills. But a

sharp drop in JGB yields is unlikely as investors remain cautious about buying

bonds at low levels. The 10-year JGB yield is expected to move between 0.025%

and 0.070% this week against the bank's target of around zero.

     Tuesday: The Ministry of Finance to auction Y2.3 trillion of 10-year bonds.

     Wednesday: The Ministry of Finance to auction Y2.3 trillion of six-month

Treasury discount bills. BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with

remaining life of 5 to 10 years expected.

     Thursday: The Ministry of Finance to auction Y800 billion of 30-year bonds

and Y4.4 trillion of three-month Treasury discount bills.

     Friday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of 1

to 3 years, 3 to 5 years, 10 to 25 years and over 25 years expected.

     CHINA

     Trade data on Friday will be watched closely for signs of a slowing of

domestic or foreign demand. CPI/PPI data on Saturday will be eyed for signs of a

pickup in domestic inflation as a result of the government orders for many

industries to cut production to reduce pollution.

     Data

     Thursday, time uncertain: Foreign exchange reserves data for November to be

released. In October, reserves rose $703 million to $3.1092 trillion, the ninth

straight monthly increase.

     Friday, time uncertain: trade data for November to be released. In October,

exports grew 6.9% year-over-year, slowing from 8.1% in September. Imports rose

17.2% y/y, slower than the 18.6% gain the month before. The trade balance rose

to $38.2 billion from $28.6 billion in September.

     Saturday, 9:30 am CST (0130 GMT): CPI and PPI data for November to be

released. CPI rose 1.9% y/y in October, accelerating from 1.6% in September, as

the food price decline narrowed. PPI rose 6.9% y/y, the same rate as the month

before, input prices continued to heir strong momentum.