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Free AccessAsia-Pacific Week Ahead
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:00 GMT Dec 24/15:00 EST Dec 24
JAPAN
The focus this week will be how the minutes of the Bank of Japan's October
board meeting and summary of opinions of their December board meeting to see how
members projected the look for wages and prices as well as how they assessed the
risks of leaving interest rates low for an extended period.
Key indicators are expected to show that the pickup in consumer inflation
remains slow while economic activity was firm in November.
Bank of Japan
Tuesday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT Monday): The BOJ releases the minutes of its
Oct. 30-31 policy meeting, at which the board decided in an 8-to-1 vote to
maintain its current monetary easing stance under the yield curve control
framework. The board lowered the inflation forecast in fiscal 2017 and 2018 but
it stuck to its timeframe that it can achieve the 2% inflation target "around
fiscal 2019" ending in March 2020. Board member Goushi Kataoka, who joined the
board in July, dissented for the second straight meeting, although he didn't
propose any specific policy action. Kataoka argued that in order to lower
longer-term interest rates, it was appropriate to buy JGBs so that the 15-year
bond yield would remain below 0.2% from around 0.3%.
Tuesday, 1:15 pm JST (0415 GMT): BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at a
meeting of the Keidanren business lobby in Tokyo.
Thursday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT Wednesday): The BOJ releases the summary of
opinions presented at its Dec. 20-21 policy meeting. The board decided in an
8-to-1 vote to maintain its current yield curve control target, which Governor
Kuroda said was at an appropriate level that would not require an immediate
change. Board member Kataoka opposed to the policy target, citing downside
risks, saying the BOJ should try to hit its 2% inflation target in fiscal 2018,
a year earlier than the bank's current timeframe. To this effect, he argued the
bank should target yields on JGBs with maturities of 10 years and longer. He
didn't say how low the target for those yields should be.
Friday, 5 pm JST (0800 GMT): The BOJ will release its purchase plan for
Japanese government bonds in January. The BOJ is likely to leave the frequency
of its JGB purchases unchanged from December, indicating there is no need to
guide any particular bond yields higher or lower. The BOJ will also leave
unchanged its purchase plans for each JGB maturity zone.
Data
Tuesday, 8:30 am JST (2330 GMT Monday): The Ministry of Internal Affairs
and Communications releases the November national, December Tokyo CPI, November
household spending and November unemployment. The MNI survey median forecasts:
November core CPI (excluding fresh food) +0.8% on year, which would be the 11th
straight y/y rise vs. +0.8% in October; December central Tokyo core CPI +0.6% on
year, which would be the sixth straight y/y rise following +0.6% in November;
seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 2.8%, unchanged from the previous five
months; real average household spending +0.5% on year vs. unchanged in October.
Tuesday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT Monday): The BOJ releases the November
service producer price index (SPPI). In October, the SPPI rose 0.8% on year vs.
+0.9% in September and gained 0.2% on month vs. +0.1% in September.
Thursday, 8:50 am JST (2350 GMT Wednesday): The METI releases preliminary
November industrial production and its outlook for December and January output
as well as November retail sales. The MNI median forecasts: industrial output
+0.5% on month, which would be the second straight m/m rise vs. +0.5% in
October; retail sales +1.3% on year, which would be the first rise in two months
after -0.2% in October, which was the first drop in 12 months due to bad
weather.
Japanese Government Bonds
Upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields may emerge temporarily
due to profit-taking ahead of the end of the year. But a sharp rise in JGB
yields is unlikely in the face of investor bargain-hunting. The 10-year bond
yield rose to 0.065% Thursday, the highest level since Nov. 1. The 10-year JGB
yield is expected to move between 0.040% and 0.075% this week against the bank's
target of around zero.
Monday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of
5-10, 10-25 and more than 25 years expected.
Tuesday: The Ministry of Finance to auction Y2.2 trillion of 2-year bonds.
Wednesday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of
1-3 and 3-5 years expected.
Thursday: BOJ outright purchase operations for JGBs with remaining life of
5-10, 10-25 and more than 25 years expected.
CHINA
The highlight of a light week will be official PMI data, which will give
clues about business sentiment at the end of the year.
Data
Wednesday, 9:30 am CST (0130 GMT): Data on Chinese industrial profits in
November will be released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Profits
rose 25.1% year-on-year in October, the second-strongest monthly gain this year
behind the 27.7% y/y growth rate seen in September, which was the strongest
growth since data on industrial profits became available in February 2012.
Sunday, 9:00 am CST (0100 GMT): The official China manufacturing and
service PMIs for December, jointly released by the China Federation of Logistics
and Purchasing and the NBS, will be released. The manufacturing index rose
unexpectedly to 51.8 in November, the second highest level this year after the
52.4 reading in September. The CFLP services PMI also rose, to 54.8 from
October's 54.3 reading.
AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND
Markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday to mark the Christmas holiday.
In a very quiet week, the lone event of any kind will be a data release Friday
in Australia.
Data
Friday, 11:30 am AEDT (0030 GMT): The Reserve Bank of Australia will
release private sector credit data for November. The expectation is for a rise
of 0.4% m/m, the same pace as in October.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.