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Atlanta Fed GDPNow Lifts To 2.0%, Trimming Recent Declines

US DATA
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker has increased its real GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from 1.55% on the Jul 3 update, in what had been a fresh low for the Q2 vintage after multiple downward revisions.
  • The increase came after Friday’s payrolls report with only marginal impact from today’s wholesale trade release.
  • Upward revisions were in consumption (1.1% to 1.5%) and gross private domestic investment (from 6.5% to 7.6%).
  • Consumption is currently seen adding 1.05pp to GDP growth in Q2, unchanged from the 1.0pp in Q1 having stepped down from a strong 2.16pp averaged in 2H23.
  • Changes in inventories are still seen providing a large sequential boost on the quarter, shifting from -0.4pp in Q1 to an assumed +0.74pp.

Source: Atlanta Fed

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  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker has increased its real GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from 1.55% on the Jul 3 update, in what had been a fresh low for the Q2 vintage after multiple downward revisions.
  • The increase came after Friday’s payrolls report with only marginal impact from today’s wholesale trade release.
  • Upward revisions were in consumption (1.1% to 1.5%) and gross private domestic investment (from 6.5% to 7.6%).
  • Consumption is currently seen adding 1.05pp to GDP growth in Q2, unchanged from the 1.0pp in Q1 having stepped down from a strong 2.16pp averaged in 2H23.
  • Changes in inventories are still seen providing a large sequential boost on the quarter, shifting from -0.4pp in Q1 to an assumed +0.74pp.

Source: Atlanta Fed