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Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Sees New Lows For Q2 Estimates

US DATA
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for Q2 has continued its string of recent downgrades, most recently being cut to 1.55% from 1.7% two days ago, 2.2% after monthly PCE, 2.7% at Thursday’s GDP update and 3.0% from Jun 20.
  • It’s a fresh low for the Q2 vintage and leaves GDP growth set for almost no acceleration from the 1.4% seen in Q1.
  • Forecasts for real consumption have been cut again from 1.5% to 1.1% (from 2.5% last week), whilst real gross private domestic investment has been trimmed from 6.9% to 6.5% (and from 8.8% last week).
  • There is a small offsetting upward revision from a reduced net export drag of -0.78pps vs -0.94pps.
  • Consumption is seen adding 0.76pp to GDP growth, a deceleration after the 1.0pp contribution in Q1.
  • Changes in inventories still provide a large driver on the quarter, shifting from -0.4pp in Q1 to an assumed +0.7pp.

Source: Atlanta Fed

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  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for Q2 has continued its string of recent downgrades, most recently being cut to 1.55% from 1.7% two days ago, 2.2% after monthly PCE, 2.7% at Thursday’s GDP update and 3.0% from Jun 20.
  • It’s a fresh low for the Q2 vintage and leaves GDP growth set for almost no acceleration from the 1.4% seen in Q1.
  • Forecasts for real consumption have been cut again from 1.5% to 1.1% (from 2.5% last week), whilst real gross private domestic investment has been trimmed from 6.9% to 6.5% (and from 8.8% last week).
  • There is a small offsetting upward revision from a reduced net export drag of -0.78pps vs -0.94pps.
  • Consumption is seen adding 0.76pp to GDP growth, a deceleration after the 1.0pp contribution in Q1.
  • Changes in inventories still provide a large driver on the quarter, shifting from -0.4pp in Q1 to an assumed +0.7pp.

Source: Atlanta Fed