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MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Oct 2024

With the 2024 fiscal year at an end, attention will soon turn toward possible Treasury coupon upsizings next year.
Global Issuance - Deep DiveStoryGlobal Issuance

MNI (NEW YORK) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • With the 2024 fiscal year at an end, attention will soon turn toward Treasury's guidance for future issuance, with coupon sizes expected by many to increase next year amid continued deficits.
  • The Oct 30 quarterly Refunding announcement is likely to prove too early for any changes in guidance.
  • Even with the federal debt pile rising at a $2T annual pace, Treasury coupon size adjustment announcement to wait until mid-2025 at least - current consensus is for the August 2025 refunding round.
  • Auction Results: September’s nominal coupon auctions were generally quite strong.
  • Upcoming Supply: October is expected to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $24B in 5Y TIPS and $30B FRN for a total of $369B – the most since October 2021.

Please see PDF for full analysis:

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MNI (NEW YORK) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • With the 2024 fiscal year at an end, attention will soon turn toward Treasury's guidance for future issuance, with coupon sizes expected by many to increase next year amid continued deficits.
  • The Oct 30 quarterly Refunding announcement is likely to prove too early for any changes in guidance.
  • Even with the federal debt pile rising at a $2T annual pace, Treasury coupon size adjustment announcement to wait until mid-2025 at least - current consensus is for the August 2025 refunding round.
  • Auction Results: September’s nominal coupon auctions were generally quite strong.
  • Upcoming Supply: October is expected to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $24B in 5Y TIPS and $30B FRN for a total of $369B – the most since October 2021.

Please see PDF for full analysis:

Keep reading...Show less