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Atlantic Basin Exports Surging from 5 Nations

OIL

Vortexa data shows a handful of Atlantic Basin producers increasing crude exports substantially in recent months.

  • The US, Brazil, Guyana, Algeria and Libya have exported 7.6mbd of crude into global seaborne markets in October, up from an already highly elevated 7.1mbd in September.
  • Relative to Q2 2022, October levels are up by 1.8mbd or 31%, while compared to the Covid-low in June 2020, nearly 3mbd of crude exports have been added by these five countries.
  • Quality-wise these extra supplies are nearly all sweet, with a majority being light-sweet.
  • Other key crude export markets are keeping their supplies steady for now. This includes Russia (Sokol set to stage comeback), West Africa (Bonny Light and Forcados potentially coming back), and the Middle East (OPEC+ cuts may initially be counterbalanced by lower domestic use and stockdraws).
  • The flows set the scene for growing crude supplies on the market and could help to keep a lid on upward crude momentum.
  • An inability to redirect all or most of Russia’s crude come December 5 when the EU ban takes effect remains a key supply risk in the short term.

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