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Attempt On Trump's Life Could Galvanise Support Amongst Soft Support Base

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A new survey from ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos has found that former President Donald Trump has stronger support than President Biden amongst his core base. The survey is notable as it shows that both Biden and Trump have large blocs of soft support who have "reservations" about their candidacy - a dynamic which could swing towards Trump in the wake of the attempt on his life.

  • ABC: “Trump's support is deeper than Biden's -- 57% of Trump supporters strongly favor him, while just 34% of Biden's supporters strongly back their candidate. And Biden's strong support is down 10 percentage points from April after his widely criticized performance in the June 27 debate.”
  • ABC adds: “Notably, three in 10 Biden supporters say they're mainly motivated not by support for Biden but by dislike of Trump. In contrast, just 12% of Trump's supporters mainly dislike Biden. Given that dislike can be a motivator, this result helps Biden counter Trump's strong support.”
  • Pollster Frank Luntz said in a thread on X: “…what happened in PA will definitely impact the final vote, guaranteeing that every Trump voter will actually vote.”
  • Luntz adds: “In recent months, President Trump has benefited from more passionate and engaged followers than the Biden campaign, but the shooting will turn that intensity gap into a chasm. That participation gap is worth at least +1% to +2%. And because the shooting happened in Pennsylvania, the impact will be most significant in Pennsylvania.”

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Candidates, Strength of Support

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A new survey from ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos has found that former President Donald Trump has stronger support than President Biden amongst his core base. The survey is notable as it shows that both Biden and Trump have large blocs of soft support who have "reservations" about their candidacy - a dynamic which could swing towards Trump in the wake of the attempt on his life.

  • ABC: “Trump's support is deeper than Biden's -- 57% of Trump supporters strongly favor him, while just 34% of Biden's supporters strongly back their candidate. And Biden's strong support is down 10 percentage points from April after his widely criticized performance in the June 27 debate.”
  • ABC adds: “Notably, three in 10 Biden supporters say they're mainly motivated not by support for Biden but by dislike of Trump. In contrast, just 12% of Trump's supporters mainly dislike Biden. Given that dislike can be a motivator, this result helps Biden counter Trump's strong support.”
  • Pollster Frank Luntz said in a thread on X: “…what happened in PA will definitely impact the final vote, guaranteeing that every Trump voter will actually vote.”
  • Luntz adds: “In recent months, President Trump has benefited from more passionate and engaged followers than the Biden campaign, but the shooting will turn that intensity gap into a chasm. That participation gap is worth at least +1% to +2%. And because the shooting happened in Pennsylvania, the impact will be most significant in Pennsylvania.”

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Candidates, Strength of Support

Keep reading...Show less