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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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A new survey from ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos has found that former President Donald Trump has stronger support than President Biden amongst his core base. The survey is notable as it shows that both Biden and Trump have large blocs of soft support who have "reservations" about their candidacy - a dynamic which could swing towards Trump in the wake of the attempt on his life.
- ABC: “Trump's support is deeper than Biden's -- 57% of Trump supporters strongly favor him, while just 34% of Biden's supporters strongly back their candidate. And Biden's strong support is down 10 percentage points from April after his widely criticized performance in the June 27 debate.”
- ABC adds: “Notably, three in 10 Biden supporters say they're mainly motivated not by support for Biden but by dislike of Trump. In contrast, just 12% of Trump's supporters mainly dislike Biden. Given that dislike can be a motivator, this result helps Biden counter Trump's strong support.”
- Pollster Frank Luntz said in a thread on X: “…what happened in PA will definitely impact the final vote, guaranteeing that every Trump voter will actually vote.”
- Luntz adds: “In recent months, President Trump has benefited from more passionate and engaged followers than the Biden campaign, but the shooting will turn that intensity gap into a chasm. That participation gap is worth at least +1% to +2%. And because the shooting happened in Pennsylvania, the impact will be most significant in Pennsylvania.”
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Candidates, Strength of Support
Source: ABC News
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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