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Attention Shifts to National Election, SARB Rate Decision

SOUTH AFRICA
EM BulletHomepagePolitical Market NewsBulletEmerging Market News
  • Focus this week is on the two major domestic risk events in South Africa – the national election on Wednesday and the SARB rate decision on Thursday.
  • South Africa holds its general election on 29 May, with the contest potentially set to result in a sea-change in the country’s political environment. The governing African National Congress (ANC) of President Cyril Ramaphosa could lose its majority in the National Assembly. This would require the ANC to garner support from other parties to elect a president and could bring about the first non-transitional coalition government in South Africa’s history.
  • Polls close at 21:00 local time on Wednesday with results expected over the subsequent 1-2 days. See our full preview of the election here.
  • Regarding the SARB, the generally shared viewpoint is that the central bank will stand pat on rates in its first post-election monetary policy decision. The central bank's rhetoric remains relatively hawkish, while inflation continues to linger above the SARB's preferred +4.5% Y/Y target mid-point. Our full preview of the decision, with sell-side analyst views, will be released later in the week.
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  • Focus this week is on the two major domestic risk events in South Africa – the national election on Wednesday and the SARB rate decision on Thursday.
  • South Africa holds its general election on 29 May, with the contest potentially set to result in a sea-change in the country’s political environment. The governing African National Congress (ANC) of President Cyril Ramaphosa could lose its majority in the National Assembly. This would require the ANC to garner support from other parties to elect a president and could bring about the first non-transitional coalition government in South Africa’s history.
  • Polls close at 21:00 local time on Wednesday with results expected over the subsequent 1-2 days. See our full preview of the election here.
  • Regarding the SARB, the generally shared viewpoint is that the central bank will stand pat on rates in its first post-election monetary policy decision. The central bank's rhetoric remains relatively hawkish, while inflation continues to linger above the SARB's preferred +4.5% Y/Y target mid-point. Our full preview of the decision, with sell-side analyst views, will be released later in the week.