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Attention Turns To Run-Off Contests After RN Wins 1st Round Plurality

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The first round of the French parliamentary election on 30 June delivered a result largely in line with opinion polling as the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) secured a plurality of the vote. Attention now turns to the second round on 7 July, where President Emmanuel Macron - after a poor third-placed finish for his centrist Ensemble alliance - is calling for a 'republican front' of the centre and left to join together to stop RN securing a majority.

  • Projections from pollster Ifop expect the RN to win between 240 and 270 seats based on these vote shares, short of the 289 required for a majority. The leftist New Popular Front (NFP), in second place on 28%, could win 180-200 seats, while Ensemble could fall to 60-90 according to Ifop projections.
  • The election has seen three notable highs:
    • The highest turnout since the 1986 legislative election at 66.7%, compared to 47.5% just two years ago.
    • A total of 75 of 577 seats were won in a first round, a far greater total than usual. Thirty eight went to the RN, 32 to the NFP, three to the centre-right Les Republicains and its allies, and two to Ensemble.
    • A very high number of seats could see three-way contests in the second round, with 285-315 of seats seeing more than two candidates reach the threshold of securing support from 12.5% of eligible voters in that constituency.
  • If Ensemble candidates do not stand down in favour of NFP or vice versa it would smooth the path to an RN majority, with the centre/left vote split.

Chart 1. Parliamentary Election Vote Share, % (2022 Result in lighter shaded column)

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The first round of the French parliamentary election on 30 June delivered a result largely in line with opinion polling as the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) secured a plurality of the vote. Attention now turns to the second round on 7 July, where President Emmanuel Macron - after a poor third-placed finish for his centrist Ensemble alliance - is calling for a 'republican front' of the centre and left to join together to stop RN securing a majority.

  • Projections from pollster Ifop expect the RN to win between 240 and 270 seats based on these vote shares, short of the 289 required for a majority. The leftist New Popular Front (NFP), in second place on 28%, could win 180-200 seats, while Ensemble could fall to 60-90 according to Ifop projections.
  • The election has seen three notable highs:
    • The highest turnout since the 1986 legislative election at 66.7%, compared to 47.5% just two years ago.
    • A total of 75 of 577 seats were won in a first round, a far greater total than usual. Thirty eight went to the RN, 32 to the NFP, three to the centre-right Les Republicains and its allies, and two to Ensemble.
    • A very high number of seats could see three-way contests in the second round, with 285-315 of seats seeing more than two candidates reach the threshold of securing support from 12.5% of eligible voters in that constituency.
  • If Ensemble candidates do not stand down in favour of NFP or vice versa it would smooth the path to an RN majority, with the centre/left vote split.

Chart 1. Parliamentary Election Vote Share, % (2022 Result in lighter shaded column)

Keep reading...Show less