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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
RBA-dated OIS is pricing a 50% chance of a 25bp hike at Tuesday’s policy meeting after retail sales for May yesterday printed significantly stronger than expected at +0.7% m/m versus expectations of +0.1%. The ABS noted that the solid rise was driven by higher food and restaurant spending as well as “a boost in spending on discretionary goods”, which is in contrast to consumer surveys.
- AU STIR currently has two 25bp rate hikes priced by Dec’23.
- US STIR was also pressured firmer yesterday following an upward revision to Q1 US GDP on the third reading and softer than forecast Initial Jobless Claims.
- July 26 FOMC has a 78% chance of a 25bp hike priced. September has more than fully priced a hike with a cumulative of +32bp of tightening. November’s cumulative climbed to 35bp at 5.425%.
Figure 1: AU & US STIR
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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