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AUCTION PREVIEW: ACGB Nov-29 Supply Due

AUSSIE BONDS

The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) will today sell A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 Nov 2029. The line was last sold on 06 Mar 2024 for A$800bn. The last sale drew an average yield of 3.7385%, at a high yield of 3.7400% and was covered 2.5750x. There were 29 bidders, 10 of which were successful and 5 were allocated in full.

  • The bidding at today’s auction is likely to be influenced by several factors. The outright yield is around 39bps higher than the early March auction level but still around 52bps lower than the November high. The 5/10 yield curve, is around 7bp flatter since the March print but 20bps flatter than the early November high.
  • RBA-dated OIS is currently pricing a 20% chance of a cut by December, from a 10% chance of a hike at the start of May.
  • It is also important to acknowledge that the sentiment towards the front to mid part of the curve has seen stronger demand over the past month, with the 5yr little changed over that period.
  • Results are due at 0200 BST / 1100AEST.
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