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AUSTRALIA: AUD Consolidating Renewed Weakness, NAB Adjust RBA Forecast

AUSTRALIA
BulletAPACForeign Exchange BulletsAustraliaMarkets
  • AUDUSD sits marginally weaker on Thursday, broadly consolidating a powerful move lower this week, with losses of 1.39% since last Friday’s close following a notable hold of 50-day EMA resistance. Spot was assisted south by a lower-than-expected set of Q4 Australia inflation data on Wednesday, which alongside a more stable greenback have provided key headwinds for the pair.
  • Bolstering the bearish trend, NAB brought forward its RBA rate cut forecast to February overnight, bringing all four Australian major banks now in line, while the OIS market is pricing in a 92% chance of a 25bps cut.
  • A continuation lower for AUDUSD, would bring the focus back on 0.6131, the Jan 13 low and the bear trigger. Below here, attention would be on 0.6045, the 1.5 projection of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing.
  • In the crosses, AUDNZD is trading back towards the lower bound of the past 4 months, printing a 1.1006 low overnight. Standard Chartered have recommended going short, and they target 1.0788 with a stop at 1.1103, citing diverging central bank policies and highlighting the RBNZ has likely peaked in dovishness. Additionally, AUDJPY broke the prior January low overnight and the next area of interest will be at 95.52.
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  • AUDUSD sits marginally weaker on Thursday, broadly consolidating a powerful move lower this week, with losses of 1.39% since last Friday’s close following a notable hold of 50-day EMA resistance. Spot was assisted south by a lower-than-expected set of Q4 Australia inflation data on Wednesday, which alongside a more stable greenback have provided key headwinds for the pair.
  • Bolstering the bearish trend, NAB brought forward its RBA rate cut forecast to February overnight, bringing all four Australian major banks now in line, while the OIS market is pricing in a 92% chance of a 25bps cut.
  • A continuation lower for AUDUSD, would bring the focus back on 0.6131, the Jan 13 low and the bear trigger. Below here, attention would be on 0.6045, the 1.5 projection of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing.
  • In the crosses, AUDNZD is trading back towards the lower bound of the past 4 months, printing a 1.1006 low overnight. Standard Chartered have recommended going short, and they target 1.0788 with a stop at 1.1103, citing diverging central bank policies and highlighting the RBNZ has likely peaked in dovishness. Additionally, AUDJPY broke the prior January low overnight and the next area of interest will be at 95.52.