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AUD Motors Toward December High as China Relations Improve

FOREX
  • AUD tops the table in G10 ahead of the NY crossover, with AUD/USD nearing the next resistance at the December high of $0.6893 following overnight reports that China bureaucrats could roll back the ban on coal imports from Australia after a two-year freeze in trade. If confirmed, the move would mark a significant normalisation in relations between the two countries, reflected in the currency's material break back above the 200-dma for the first time since early 2022.
  • The USD backtrack follows a strong rally in the currency on Tuesday, and may reflect a settling of markets after the volatile start to the year. French inflation was a material downside surprise at 6.7% for the EU-harmonized Y/Y figure vs. Exp. 7.3%. The release saw bond yields slide lower and EUR/GBP drop back below 0.8800.
  • We see the first tier one US data of the year with today's ISM Manufacturing release. Markets will eye the release for any clues ahead of Friday's payrolls, which are expected to show jobs growth of 200k this month.
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