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AUD Nearing $0.70, With Key Test Just Above

FOREX
  • Growth proxy currencies are outperforming early Thursday, with AUD/USD on track to print a third higher low on the day and put the pair within range of $0.70. A break above this mark opens initial firm resistance at 0.7040, the Aug 16 high where a break is required to ease the current bearish pressure.
  • High beta currencies are gaining ahead of the NY crossover while the greenback trades generally weaker. This puts the USD Index further off the recovery high printed earlier this week at 109.27, but pullbacks are expected to remain shallow ahead of the Jackson Hole Policy Symposium which formally kicks off this evening. Markets watch for confirmation of the full agenda, with a speech from Fed's Powell the focus on Friday.
  • Support for the dollar could slow any weakness going forward at 107.5036, the 38.2% Fib retracement for the August upleg.
  • NZD is gaining in sympathy with the AUD, while EUR continues to trade heavy. Energy costs continue to add to the stagflation narrative, with 2023 power costs across Germany rising to new record highs ahead of the NY open.
  • On the docket for Thursday, markets watch the secondary Q2 GDP read (expected to be revised higher to -0.7% from -0.9%). MNI also speak with Philly Fed's Harker, who hasn't commented on monetary policy directly since late June.
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