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AUD/NZD Drifts Lower, OIS Softens

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD closed the session down 0.16% at 1.0831, the cross trades towards the bottom of recent ranges now after failing to break back above the upwards trendline.
  • Initial support remains at 1.0800 (Aug 29 lows) below here the June lows of 1.0733 is the next major support. To the upside a break back above the trendline at 1.0900 would be needed to test key moving averages which sit in 1.0910-1.0940 area.
  • RBA dated OIS was pricing in a full cut on Wednesday, we have since cooled a touch to 23bps of cuts into year-end, looking through to July next year there is currently 3 full cuts priced, at contrast to the 7bps of cuts from the RBNZ
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread was 5bps higher and now trade flat, the highest level since Aug 19th. There has been a notable breakdown in the correlation between the 2yr swap spread of the AUD/NZD, see chart

  • There are no notable upcoming expiries
  • Today, we have loan values at 1130 EAST/ 930 HKT

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