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AUD/NZD Steady Ahead Of RBA Meeting Today

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD saw an increase in volatility on Monday alongside wild moves in all risk markets, the cross finished the session up 0.08% at 1.0938.
  • The cross did crash to 1.0850 briefly heading into the US session overnight, the lowest levels since mid-June, breaking below the 100 & 200-day EMAs before a snap rebound.
  • The 100-day EMA at 1.0928 now acts as initial support, while break back above 1.0957 (highs Aug 2 & 5th) are needed test 1.0979 (50-day EMA)
  • The RBA meet today, with AU OIS pricing in just a 7% chance of a cut at today's meeting, the market is now pricing in a full cut by November, with 43bps of cuts into year-end.
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread is trading towards the low end of recent ranges at -28bps, from a high of 8.5bps July 31st
  • Expiries: 1.0950 ($385.25), 1.0975 ($382.25m) Aug 6 NY cut
  • Today, ANZ-Indeed Jobs ads at 11:30 and the RBA meet at 14:30, followed by the press conference at 15:30.
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