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AUD/NZD Struggles At 1.1100, AU-NZ 2yr Swaps Continues Making New Highs

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD has traded sideways since rally on the back of the RBNZ on Wednesday, although have continued to attempt and fail to break above 1.1100, in early morning trading we are little changed at 1.1085.
  • The NZ OIS market is pricing a 55% chance of a rate cut in August, and a 75% chance of a cut in Oct, while the AU futures market is pricing in a 21% chance on a hike in August.
  • Key levels to watch: Initial support lays at 1.1062 (July 10 lows/ Post RBNZ lows) a break below here would open a move to 1.0978 (20-day EMA). While to the upside a break above 1.1100 (round number) would open a move to 1.1174 (June 2022 highs)
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap is 3bp higher at -13bps
  • Expiries: 1.0925 ($500m), 1.077 ($300m) For July 15th NY Cut. Upcoming notable strikes include; 1.0950 ($496.58m) July 16th, 1.0850 ($498.85m) July 18th
  • Today, focus will be on China data, which is due out at 12:00 AEST
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