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AUD Slips as RBA Could Ponder Rate Pause

FOREX
  • AUD and NZD make up the poorest performers in G10 following the RBA minutes release overnight, which raised the prospect of a pause to the rate hike cycle. The RBA minutes showed the board took uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook into consideration, and could keep rates unchanged at upcoming meetings in order to judge the impact of the tightening cycle so far.
  • AUD/USD has fully reversed the Monday move higher and is partially retracing last week's upside. This keeps the pair off a test of the key resistance layered just above at the 200- and 100-dmas of $0.6763 and $0.6783 respectively.
  • JPY is similarly weak, with markets taking profits on the sharp rally in the currency across the unfolding of the banking crisis over the past fortnight. Europe's bank sector is seen higher early Tuesday, helping buoy underlying sentiment to keep haven FX under pressure.
  • The USD, EUR trade more favourably headed through to NY hours, with the single currency slightly outperforming. This puts EUR/USD through the Monday high and within range of congestion resistance layered between 1.0749-60.
  • The German ZEW survey takes focus going forward, with the current situation component expected to improve only marginally from the February -45.1 read. Canadian CPI and US existing home sales are also on the docket. The central bank speaker slate is typically light for a pre-FOMC decision session, although appearances from ECB's Lagarde & Villeroy at the BIS could draw some attention at 1230GMT.
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