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Free AccessAUD/USD Looking Higher
AUD/USD has registered fresh multi-month highs over the last 24 hours, and last prints little changed on the day, just above of $0.7520.
- Some of Australia's key exports (think coal, LNG and some metals) have supported the AUD during the month-to-date. Broader USD weakness (as measured by the DXY) has also helped the AUD/USD cross higher in recent days. Hawkish RBA repricing (however accurate/erroneous that may prove to be) has lagged the degree of hawkish Fed repricing, with the AU/U.S. 2-Year yield spread narrowing to the lowest level seen since Mar '20, although, offering some counter, the AU/U.S. 10-Year yield spread has hit multi-month wides in recent days.
- Our technical analyst notes that AUD/USD maintains a firmer short-term tone. The pair has traded above resistance at the Sep 3 high ($0.7478), a bull trigger. The breach of this hurdle has removed recent bearish considerations and strengthens a bullish case as a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is established. The Jul 13 high ($0.7503) has also been cleared, leaving bullish focus on the Jul 7 & 6 highs ($0.7534 & $0.7599 respectively). Support has been defined at the Oct 18 low ($0.7379).
- Looking ahead to Thursday's local AUD docket, the Q3 NAB business survey and latest round of scheduled ACGB purchases from the RBA are due. Re: the latter some still point to the potential for the RBA to step in a reinforce its 0.10% ACGB Apr-24 yield target today (the line finished Wednesday's session at 0.1525%), although Tuesday's late move from the RBA (when it hiked borrowing costs for the bonds relevant to enforcing the target) reduces the odds of such a move. Weekly ABS payrolls data will also hit.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.