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Services PMI disappoints but little market reaction overall

UK DATA
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  • We noted the market was probably pricing in a softer print than the consensus following this morning's disappointing French, German and EZ prints and the UK services print has seen a similar downside surprise (printing 51.2 versus 53.4 consensus, 53.2 prior). Manufacturing in contrast was marginally higher-than-expected at 51.4 (51.1exp, 51.2 prior).
  • Gilt futures spiked around 13 ticks higher but have reversed that move while GBPUSD fell about 15 pips (and has also reversed).
  • Probably the key point here is that: "UK firms also faced a quickening of input cost inflation in June, as severe global shipping constraints led to higher transport costs. The rise fed through to quicker increases in output charges among both manufacturing and services companies, with producers notably raising their prices at the sharpest rate since May 2023."
  • But there was also politics weighing on the services print (just like in France): "Although higher customer demand helped to boost activity levels, according to respondents, this was partly offset by reports of spending decisions being put on hold due to the general election."
  • We had also noted that the BOE is less data dependent and we don't think there is anything in this print to really change the narrative that August looks likely for a cut - absent some large surprises that can't be entirely ruled out still.
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  • We noted the market was probably pricing in a softer print than the consensus following this morning's disappointing French, German and EZ prints and the UK services print has seen a similar downside surprise (printing 51.2 versus 53.4 consensus, 53.2 prior). Manufacturing in contrast was marginally higher-than-expected at 51.4 (51.1exp, 51.2 prior).
  • Gilt futures spiked around 13 ticks higher but have reversed that move while GBPUSD fell about 15 pips (and has also reversed).
  • Probably the key point here is that: "UK firms also faced a quickening of input cost inflation in June, as severe global shipping constraints led to higher transport costs. The rise fed through to quicker increases in output charges among both manufacturing and services companies, with producers notably raising their prices at the sharpest rate since May 2023."
  • But there was also politics weighing on the services print (just like in France): "Although higher customer demand helped to boost activity levels, according to respondents, this was partly offset by reports of spending decisions being put on hold due to the general election."
  • We had also noted that the BOE is less data dependent and we don't think there is anything in this print to really change the narrative that August looks likely for a cut - absent some large surprises that can't be entirely ruled out still.