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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMAN DATA
Preliminary May data questions the narrative that German non-EU exports have been increasing this year. The May print more than reversed a large increase in April. Looking on a longer-term basis it now appears as though German non-EU exports overall have been relatively unchanged since mid-2022.
- Non-EU exports dropped 6.4% M/M (vs +4.7% April) to E58.6bln in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted terms (preliminary Destatis estimate).
- Exports generally have been one of the drivers behind a gradual recovery in Germany in Q1, and April data suggested that this continued in Q2.
- Taking this partial May print into account (full May trade balance data will be published at the beginning of next month), it appears that the external sector saw some more mixed developments in Q2 than recently anticipated. While the May data does not necessarily point to a rapid deterioration, it will be accounted for in net negative terms re GDP growth, and casts some doubt on the anticipated further uptick for international demand on German products.
- Looking ahead, sentiment on exports continued to tick up, with the IFO export expectations indicator printing in positive territory for the first time since April 2023, at +0.3p (vs -1.5 April).
MNI, Destatis
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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