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August CPI, Budget Proposal To Be Presented

MEXICO
  • Mexico inflation data due at the top of the hour. Non-processed food prices remain under upward pressure from supply shocks. Fuel prices continue slowly increasing, in line with unwinding government subsidies. Core prices are increasing due to the spillover from supply shocks, price indexation and global shortages. Base effects are limiting the annual inflation gain.
    • Aug. CPI M/m, est. 0.68%, prior 0.74%
    • Aug. CPI Y/y, est. 8.68%, prior 8.15%
    • Aug. CPI Core M/m, est. 0.80%, prior 0.62%
    • Aug. CPI Core Y/y, est. 8.06%, prior 7.65%
  • It is widely expected that Banxico will likely follow the Federal Reserve at its September 29 meeting. Most forecasters continue to expect further tightening throughout 2022, with most terminal rate forecasts remaining between 9.75-10.0%.
  • Elsewhere, Finance Minister Rogelio Ramirez de la O will present the government’s 2023 budget proposal to the lower house of congress on Thursday.
    • For reference, Mexico’s economic growth is seen increasing to 3% with lower inflation and a rise in oil production, Reuters reports citing Finance Ministry draft budget forecasts.
    • Draft shows annual inflation slowing to 3.2% by end-2023.
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