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MNI SNB Preview - December 2024: Further Easing Coming

The SNB is expected to cut its policy rate again, with a regular 25bps cut to 0.75% appearing the most likely outcome
Central Bank PreviewHomepageSwitzerlandSNB - PreviewCEEMEACentral Bank ReportsMarketsStory

MNI (LONDON) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The SNB is expected to cut its policy rate again, with a regular 25bps cut to 0.75% appearing the most likely outcome but an outsized 50bps move also remains possible. Market pricing between the two remains finely split
  • There will therefore likely be a downward revision to September’s updated inflation projection, regardless of it being conditional on any new policy rate
  • Focus should be on any change to FX communications – although while CHF has been volatile, the currency overall stands at similar real levels to September
  • As in that last meeting, the SNB has unusually clearly hinted at further easing to come, so attention will also be on any commentary towards potentially negative terminal rates in President Schlegel’s first press conference

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: SNBPreview-2024-12.pdf

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MNI (LONDON) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The SNB is expected to cut its policy rate again, with a regular 25bps cut to 0.75% appearing the most likely outcome but an outsized 50bps move also remains possible. Market pricing between the two remains finely split
  • There will therefore likely be a downward revision to September’s updated inflation projection, regardless of it being conditional on any new policy rate
  • Focus should be on any change to FX communications – although while CHF has been volatile, the currency overall stands at similar real levels to September
  • As in that last meeting, the SNB has unusually clearly hinted at further easing to come, so attention will also be on any commentary towards potentially negative terminal rates in President Schlegel’s first press conference

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: SNBPreview-2024-12.pdf