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AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, Mid-Range, Awaiting FOMC & AUS Jobs

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -2.0) are weaker with current dealings in the middle of today’s Sydney session ranges. 

  • Outside of the previously outlined Westpac leading Index, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest sell-off. Yesterday’s session reflected position squaring ahead of today’s FOMC policy announcement. The markets still project closer to a 50bp cut than a 25bp move from the Fed.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +21bps.
  • Swap rates are 2bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -2 to -5.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 20bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see August labour market data. Bloomberg
    consensus expects 26k new jobs, around half of the 3-month average, with
    unemployment remaining at 4.2%.
  • Employment prints have been on the upside in recent months but have still come in below growth in the labour force driving up unemployment. The participation rate is expected to stay at its new high of 67.1%.
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ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -2.0) are weaker with current dealings in the middle of today’s Sydney session ranges. 

  • Outside of the previously outlined Westpac leading Index, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest sell-off. Yesterday’s session reflected position squaring ahead of today’s FOMC policy announcement. The markets still project closer to a 50bp cut than a 25bp move from the Fed.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +21bps.
  • Swap rates are 2bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -2 to -5.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 20bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see August labour market data. Bloomberg
    consensus expects 26k new jobs, around half of the 3-month average, with
    unemployment remaining at 4.2%.
  • Employment prints have been on the upside in recent months but have still come in below growth in the labour force driving up unemployment. The participation rate is expected to stay at its new high of 67.1%.