October 31, 2024 04:48 GMT
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, Narrow Ranges, Bldg Apps On The Move
AUSSIE BONDS
ACGBs (YM -7.0 & XM -5.0) are cheaper after dealing in relatively narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session.
- Outside of the previously outlined domestic data drop (Retail Sales, Terms of Trade, Building Approvals and Private Sector Credit), there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- Building approvals are finally gathering momentum in a housing market characterised by low stocks. But the total continues to be below the level in January 2020 despite an 8.7% increase in the working-age population since then. Continued pressure on the housing market is likely to drive further home price and rental increases.
- Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session.
- Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +23bps.
- Swap rates are 5bps higher.
- The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -8.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing has firmed by 1-7bps, with gains led by later meetings. Today’s movements place 2025 meetings 3-8bps above pre-CPI levels from yesterday. Just 2bps of easing is priced in by year-end.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see CoreLogic Home Value, Judo Bank PMI Mfg, Household Spending, PPI and Home Loans Value data alongside AOFM’s planned sale of A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond.
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