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AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, Narrow Ranges, Bldg Apps On The Move

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -7.0 & XM -5.0) are cheaper after dealing in relatively narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session.

  • Outside of the previously outlined domestic data drop (Retail Sales, Terms of Trade, Building Approvals and Private Sector Credit), there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • Building approvals are finally gathering momentum in a housing market characterised by low stocks. But the total continues to be below the level in January 2020 despite an 8.7% increase in the working-age population since then. Continued pressure on the housing market is likely to drive further home price and rental increases.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session. 
  • Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +23bps.
  • Swap rates are 5bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -8.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing has firmed by 1-7bps, with gains led by later meetings. Today’s movements place 2025 meetings 3-8bps above pre-CPI levels from yesterday. Just 2bps of easing is priced in by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see CoreLogic Home Value, Judo Bank PMI Mfg, Household Spending, PPI and Home Loans Value data alongside AOFM’s planned sale of A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond. 
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ACGBs (YM -7.0 & XM -5.0) are cheaper after dealing in relatively narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session.

  • Outside of the previously outlined domestic data drop (Retail Sales, Terms of Trade, Building Approvals and Private Sector Credit), there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • Building approvals are finally gathering momentum in a housing market characterised by low stocks. But the total continues to be below the level in January 2020 despite an 8.7% increase in the working-age population since then. Continued pressure on the housing market is likely to drive further home price and rental increases.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session. 
  • Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +23bps.
  • Swap rates are 5bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -8.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing has firmed by 1-7bps, with gains led by later meetings. Today’s movements place 2025 meetings 3-8bps above pre-CPI levels from yesterday. Just 2bps of easing is priced in by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see CoreLogic Home Value, Judo Bank PMI Mfg, Household Spending, PPI and Home Loans Value data alongside AOFM’s planned sale of A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond.