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AUSSIE BONDS: Holding Gains On A Data-Light Session, October CPI Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS
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ACGBs (YM +6.0 & XM +6.0) are holding stronger but slightly off the Sydney session’s best levels. 

  • The local calendar is empty until October’s CPI tomorrow and RBA Governor Bullock’s speech at the CEDA Conference on Thursday.
  • Cash US tsys are flat to 2bps cheaper, with a flattening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s strong Bessent-induced rally.
  • The markets today are digesting news that one of the first things US President-elect Trump will do in office is add another 10% to existing tariffs on China and introduce 25% on Mexico and Canada. This has driven the AUDUSD to an intraday low of 0.6434.
  • Cash ACGBs are 6-7bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +14bps.
  • Swap rates are 4bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened with pricing flat to +4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bps softer across 2025 meetings. A 25bps rate cut is not fully priced until July.
  • Across the ditch, the RBNZ policy decision is due tomorrow, with all economists surveyed by Bloomberg looking for at least a 50bp cut.
  • This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond tomorrow and A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday. 
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ACGBs (YM +6.0 & XM +6.0) are holding stronger but slightly off the Sydney session’s best levels. 

  • The local calendar is empty until October’s CPI tomorrow and RBA Governor Bullock’s speech at the CEDA Conference on Thursday.
  • Cash US tsys are flat to 2bps cheaper, with a flattening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s strong Bessent-induced rally.
  • The markets today are digesting news that one of the first things US President-elect Trump will do in office is add another 10% to existing tariffs on China and introduce 25% on Mexico and Canada. This has driven the AUDUSD to an intraday low of 0.6434.
  • Cash ACGBs are 6-7bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +14bps.
  • Swap rates are 4bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened with pricing flat to +4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bps softer across 2025 meetings. A 25bps rate cut is not fully priced until July.
  • Across the ditch, the RBNZ policy decision is due tomorrow, with all economists surveyed by Bloomberg looking for at least a 50bp cut.
  • This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond tomorrow and A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday.