Free Trial

AUSSIE BONDS: Richer, Capex & RBA Gov. Speech Highlight Today

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.5) are stronger after US tsys rallied on the last full trading day for November, with yields at multi-week lows. 

  • US yields finished 3-5bps lower on the day, with the 7-year leading the gains following a strong auction. The strong 7Y auction marked a third solid auction for the front-loaded week.
  • Yesterday’s US data deluge was mixed but ultimately quite close to consensus. Still, it offered a reminder that core PCE inflation remains on track to overshoot median FOMC projections for Q4, while super core PCE inflation has stabilised at rates still uncomfortably above the 2% target.
  • Fed Funds implied rates were little changed. Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 16bp Dec, 22bp Jan, 35bp Mar and 52bp June.
  • Cash ACGBs are2-3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +13bps.
  • Swap rates are 2bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing -1 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps richer across meetings. A 25bps rate cut is not fully priced until May.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Q3 Private Capital Expenditure data and a speech by RBA Governor Bullock at the CEDA Conference aftermarket.
188 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.5) are stronger after US tsys rallied on the last full trading day for November, with yields at multi-week lows. 

  • US yields finished 3-5bps lower on the day, with the 7-year leading the gains following a strong auction. The strong 7Y auction marked a third solid auction for the front-loaded week.
  • Yesterday’s US data deluge was mixed but ultimately quite close to consensus. Still, it offered a reminder that core PCE inflation remains on track to overshoot median FOMC projections for Q4, while super core PCE inflation has stabilised at rates still uncomfortably above the 2% target.
  • Fed Funds implied rates were little changed. Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 16bp Dec, 22bp Jan, 35bp Mar and 52bp June.
  • Cash ACGBs are2-3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +13bps.
  • Swap rates are 2bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing -1 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps richer across meetings. A 25bps rate cut is not fully priced until May.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Q3 Private Capital Expenditure data and a speech by RBA Governor Bullock at the CEDA Conference aftermarket.