November 27, 2024 22:52 GMT
AUSSIE BONDS: Richer, Capex & RBA Gov. Speech Highlight Today
AUSSIE BONDS
ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.5) are stronger after US tsys rallied on the last full trading day for November, with yields at multi-week lows.
- US yields finished 3-5bps lower on the day, with the 7-year leading the gains following a strong auction. The strong 7Y auction marked a third solid auction for the front-loaded week.
- Yesterday’s US data deluge was mixed but ultimately quite close to consensus. Still, it offered a reminder that core PCE inflation remains on track to overshoot median FOMC projections for Q4, while super core PCE inflation has stabilised at rates still uncomfortably above the 2% target.
- Fed Funds implied rates were little changed. Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 16bp Dec, 22bp Jan, 35bp Mar and 52bp June.
- Cash ACGBs are2-3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +13bps.
- Swap rates are 2bps lower.
- The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing -1 to +3.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps richer across meetings. A 25bps rate cut is not fully priced until May.
- Today, the local calendar will see Q3 Private Capital Expenditure data and a speech by RBA Governor Bullock at the CEDA Conference aftermarket.
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