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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024
MNI US Employment Insight: Soft Enough To Keep Fed Cutting
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Jobs Data Green Lights Rate Cuts
AUSSIE BONDS: Richer, MYEFO Signals Improved Fiscal Position, Jobs Report Tomorrow
In futures roll-impacted dealings, ACGBs (YM +2.2 & XM +5.5) are stronger but slightly off Sydney session best levels. The key domestic event today was the publication of the government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO).
- As expected, the budget and debt ratio projections improved compared with May’s budget. A surplus is not yet forecast for this financial year, with a small deficit of $1.1bn projected (a $12.8bn improvement). It is however a negligible share of the economy. The MYEFO shouldn’t change the RBA’s view that fiscal policy is currently not inflationary.
- Elsewhere, CBA’s household spending index rose 4.1% y/y in November versus a revised +2.4% in October. Household spending rose 1.8% m/m versus a revised -0.6% in October.
- US tsys are dealing ~1bp richer in the Asia-Pac session ahead of tonight’s FOMC rate decision.
- Cash ACGBs are 2-6bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 4bps tighter at +8bps.
- Swap rates are 2-4bps lower, with EFPs slightly wider.
- The bills strip is flat to +1 across contracts.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar sees the November Employment Report. Bloomberg consensus is expecting a gain of 11.5k jobs, with an uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.8% from 3.7%.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.