MNI: Rough Transcript of Powell's December Press Conference

MNI: FED'S POWELL-AT OR NEAR POINT WHEN CAN BEGIN TO SLOW CUTS

MNI: FED CUTS RATES BY 25BP, SEES 2 CUTS IN 2025

CORRECTS-MNI INTERVIEW: CBRT To Cut 2-3 Times By Feb-Cangoz

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 18

MNI BRIEF: China Youth Umemployment Rate Fell In November

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -0.93M TO 421.0M DEC 13 WK

MNI: US NOV HOUSING STARTS 1.289M; PERMITS 1.505M

MNI: US Q3 CURRENT ACCOUNT GAP -$310.9B

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

AUSSIE BONDS: Richer, RBA Minutes Fail To Move Market

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM +3.0 & XM +3.5) are stronger after dealing in narrow ranges.

  • The RBA Minutes for the November meeting failed to be a market mover.
  • The minutes noted that “more than one good quarterly inflation outcome” would be needed for it to be “confident” that inflation was sustainably returning to target if it turned out that the temporarily lower headline inflation resulted in a greater drop in inflation expectations and indexation.
  • Q4 CPI is released on January 29 and Q1 at the end of April, thus May 20 may be the earliest meeting for a rate cut, consistent with current market pricing. The RBA remains ready to “adjust” policy.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer across benchmarks in today’s Asia-Pac session. 
  • Cash ACGBs are 3-4bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential +16bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps softer across 2025 meetings.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Westpac Leading Index alongside the AOFM’s planned sale of A$800mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond. The AOFM also plans to sell A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond on Friday. 
192 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

ACGBs (YM +3.0 & XM +3.5) are stronger after dealing in narrow ranges.

  • The RBA Minutes for the November meeting failed to be a market mover.
  • The minutes noted that “more than one good quarterly inflation outcome” would be needed for it to be “confident” that inflation was sustainably returning to target if it turned out that the temporarily lower headline inflation resulted in a greater drop in inflation expectations and indexation.
  • Q4 CPI is released on January 29 and Q1 at the end of April, thus May 20 may be the earliest meeting for a rate cut, consistent with current market pricing. The RBA remains ready to “adjust” policy.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer across benchmarks in today’s Asia-Pac session. 
  • Cash ACGBs are 3-4bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential +16bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps softer across 2025 meetings.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Westpac Leading Index alongside the AOFM’s planned sale of A$800mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond. The AOFM also plans to sell A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond on Friday.