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AUSSIE BONDS: Subdued Session, Local Calendar Until Wed’s Monthly CPI Data

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +2.0) are slightly stronger and at Sydney session highs on a data-light session. Ranges have been, however, relatively narrow.

  • Cash tsys curves are 1-2bps richer across benchmarks.
  • “The Australian dollar’s resilience looks set to sustain heading into the final weeks of the year with the RBA’s determined push-back against bets on rate cuts finally starting to gain traction with traders. That’s making AUD/USD something of a haven at a time when peers such as NZD, EUR and GBP face rough economic and/or geopolitical outlooks.”
  • Cash ACGBs are 2bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +15bps.
  • Swap rates are flat to 1-2bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip is flat to +2 across contracts, with a flattening bias.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-2bps softer for late 2025 meetings. No easing is priced by year-end, with a 25bps rate cut not fully priced until July.
  • The local calendar is empty until October’s CPI on Wednesday.
  • Next week, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday. 
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ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +2.0) are slightly stronger and at Sydney session highs on a data-light session. Ranges have been, however, relatively narrow.

  • Cash tsys curves are 1-2bps richer across benchmarks.
  • “The Australian dollar’s resilience looks set to sustain heading into the final weeks of the year with the RBA’s determined push-back against bets on rate cuts finally starting to gain traction with traders. That’s making AUD/USD something of a haven at a time when peers such as NZD, EUR and GBP face rough economic and/or geopolitical outlooks.”
  • Cash ACGBs are 2bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +15bps.
  • Swap rates are flat to 1-2bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip is flat to +2 across contracts, with a flattening bias.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-2bps softer for late 2025 meetings. No easing is priced by year-end, with a 25bps rate cut not fully priced until July.
  • The local calendar is empty until October’s CPI on Wednesday.
  • Next week, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday.