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AUSTRALIA: Consensus Continues To Expect Easing Cycle To Start In Q1 2025

AUSTRALIA
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Bloomberg’s October survey showed few changes to analysts’ forecasts with the main changes an upward revision to government consumption for 2025 and 2026 offset by downward revisions to export growth. Inflation, unemployment rate and wage growth were little changed. The first rate cut continues to be forecast for Q1 2025.

  • Rate expectations are unchanged with no move in Q4 2024 and 25bp of easing in Q1 2025 followed by 25bp in Q2 and Q3 but unchanged in Q4 at 3.6%. Another 25bp is projected for Q1 2026 bringing rates to 3.35% - a shallow easing cycle.
  • Consensus expectations of 0.4% q/q and 0.5% q/q for Q3 and Q4 2024 GDP are unchanged leaving 2024 growth at 1.2%. 2025 is forecast at 2.1% before picking up to 2.5% in 2026.
  • Q3 and Q4 CPI headline inflation have been revised down 0.1pp to 2.9% y/y with Q4 2025 revised up 0.1pp to 3.1% - just above target.
  • The Q4 unemployment rate has been revised down 0.1pp to 4.3% and Q4 2025 also -0.1pp to 4.5%, as labour market resilience continues to surprise. 
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Bloomberg’s October survey showed few changes to analysts’ forecasts with the main changes an upward revision to government consumption for 2025 and 2026 offset by downward revisions to export growth. Inflation, unemployment rate and wage growth were little changed. The first rate cut continues to be forecast for Q1 2025.

  • Rate expectations are unchanged with no move in Q4 2024 and 25bp of easing in Q1 2025 followed by 25bp in Q2 and Q3 but unchanged in Q4 at 3.6%. Another 25bp is projected for Q1 2026 bringing rates to 3.35% - a shallow easing cycle.
  • Consensus expectations of 0.4% q/q and 0.5% q/q for Q3 and Q4 2024 GDP are unchanged leaving 2024 growth at 1.2%. 2025 is forecast at 2.1% before picking up to 2.5% in 2026.
  • Q3 and Q4 CPI headline inflation have been revised down 0.1pp to 2.9% y/y with Q4 2025 revised up 0.1pp to 3.1% - just above target.
  • The Q4 unemployment rate has been revised down 0.1pp to 4.3% and Q4 2025 also -0.1pp to 4.5%, as labour market resilience continues to surprise.