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AUSTRALIA: Consensus Expects Strongest Growth In Over A Year Driven By Govt

AUSTRALIA
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Q3 GDP prints on Wednesday and Bloomberg consensus is at 0.5% q/q and 1.1% y/y up from 0.2% and 1.0% in Q2. This would be the highest quarterly rate since Q2 2023 and all major components should make a positive contribution except inventories. The RBA looks firmly on hold at its December 10 meeting but a GDP print in line with consensus or higher could delay easing further.

  • Consensus estimates range from 0.3% to 0.7% q/q and 1.0% to 1.6% y/y. Of the large local banks ANZ is at consensus, CBA and NAB are lower forecasting 0.4% & 1.1% and 0.3% & 1.0% respectively.
  • There are a number of forecasts lodged with Bloomberg today and on average they are in line with the consensus. Westpac revised up its forecast 0.1pp after the net exports and public demand data to 0.6% q/q and 1.2%. Macquarie also submitted a forecast to Bloomberg today and is at 0.6% & 1.3%.
  • In terms of the Q3 data released, retail sales volumes rose 0.5% q/q. Services are also part of the household consumption number, which is not yet known. The ABS said that public demand contributed 0.7pp to growth with 0.3pp expenditure and 0.4pp capex. Private investment rose 1.1% q/q. Westpac estimates that domestic demand rose 0.9% q/q and inventories detracted 0.4pp from growth.
  • The ABS said that net exports contributed 0.1pp to Q3. 
  • Productivity and unit labour costs are also included in this release and will be monitored closely. Productivity fell 0.8% q/q in Q2 and the RBA revised down its outlook in November. 
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Q3 GDP prints on Wednesday and Bloomberg consensus is at 0.5% q/q and 1.1% y/y up from 0.2% and 1.0% in Q2. This would be the highest quarterly rate since Q2 2023 and all major components should make a positive contribution except inventories. The RBA looks firmly on hold at its December 10 meeting but a GDP print in line with consensus or higher could delay easing further.

  • Consensus estimates range from 0.3% to 0.7% q/q and 1.0% to 1.6% y/y. Of the large local banks ANZ is at consensus, CBA and NAB are lower forecasting 0.4% & 1.1% and 0.3% & 1.0% respectively.
  • There are a number of forecasts lodged with Bloomberg today and on average they are in line with the consensus. Westpac revised up its forecast 0.1pp after the net exports and public demand data to 0.6% q/q and 1.2%. Macquarie also submitted a forecast to Bloomberg today and is at 0.6% & 1.3%.
  • In terms of the Q3 data released, retail sales volumes rose 0.5% q/q. Services are also part of the household consumption number, which is not yet known. The ABS said that public demand contributed 0.7pp to growth with 0.3pp expenditure and 0.4pp capex. Private investment rose 1.1% q/q. Westpac estimates that domestic demand rose 0.9% q/q and inventories detracted 0.4pp from growth.
  • The ABS said that net exports contributed 0.1pp to Q3. 
  • Productivity and unit labour costs are also included in this release and will be monitored closely. Productivity fell 0.8% q/q in Q2 and the RBA revised down its outlook in November.