MNI: FED'S BARKIN STILL CONFIDENT UNDERLYING INFLATION FALLING

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, January 3

MNI China Press Digest Jan 3:RRR Cut Mooted, Yuan, Consumption

MNI BRIEF: Beijing Boosts Consumer Trade-ins To Cellphones

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY88.5 Bln via OMO Fri

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1878 Fri; -2.29% Y/Y

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -116 BCF TO 3,413 BCF JAN 03 WK

MNI: US ISM DEC MANUF PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 49.3

MNI: UK NOV M4 MONEY SUPPLY +0% M/M, +2.9% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Jan 2025

Global IssuanceGlobal Issuance - USGlobal Issuance - Deep DiveMarketsStory

MNI (NEW YORK) - 

  • After a mixed December for Treasury auctions, January brings the final month of sales under the Yellen Treasury.
  • The first quarterly Refunding process with Treasury Secretary (now-nominee) Scott Bessent is in early February (announcement on Weds Feb 5), by which point we may start to have a better sense of the incoming administration’s approach to both fiscal policy and to more issuance-specific considerations such as duration management. Our preview of the February refunding will go into expectations in greater deal closer to the date, but we discussed this briefly in December’s Deep Dive, PDF here.
  • The most recent quarterly guidance is that Treasury does “not anticipate needing to increase nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.” Expectations remain firmly that there will be no upsizings to Treasury coupon auctions until later in 2025 at the earliest, and perhaps not until 2026 (sizes were increased between Aug 2023 and May 2024, and held steady since).
  • The Fed’s expected conclusion to balance sheet runoff in Q1 or Q2 could help by moderating net financing requirements. But when the upsizings are announced, potentially beginning as soon as the August 2025 refunding, they are expected to go on for multiple quarters.
  • Auction Results: December’s nominal coupon auctions were mixed, with three out of seven auctions trading-through, all of which saw a positive reading on MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). The 2Y Note auction was on-the-screws, and the remaining 3 auctions (3, 20, and 30-year auctions) tailed.
  • Upcoming Supply: Issuance resumes next week with sales of $58B in 3Y Note, $39B in 10Y Note (reopen), and $22B in 30Y Bond (reopen).
  • January is set to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $20B in 10Y TIPS and $30B FRN for a total of $365B – slightly below the Oct and Nov totals of $369B which were joint-highest since Oct 2021.
  • MNI's review includes a calendar of upcoming auctions and buyback operations.

Please see PDF for full analysis:

MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_2024_12.pdf

 

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MNI (NEW YORK) - 

  • After a mixed December for Treasury auctions, January brings the final month of sales under the Yellen Treasury.
  • The first quarterly Refunding process with Treasury Secretary (now-nominee) Scott Bessent is in early February (announcement on Weds Feb 5), by which point we may start to have a better sense of the incoming administration’s approach to both fiscal policy and to more issuance-specific considerations such as duration management. Our preview of the February refunding will go into expectations in greater deal closer to the date, but we discussed this briefly in December’s Deep Dive, PDF here.
  • The most recent quarterly guidance is that Treasury does “not anticipate needing to increase nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.” Expectations remain firmly that there will be no upsizings to Treasury coupon auctions until later in 2025 at the earliest, and perhaps not until 2026 (sizes were increased between Aug 2023 and May 2024, and held steady since).
  • The Fed’s expected conclusion to balance sheet runoff in Q1 or Q2 could help by moderating net financing requirements. But when the upsizings are announced, potentially beginning as soon as the August 2025 refunding, they are expected to go on for multiple quarters.
  • Auction Results: December’s nominal coupon auctions were mixed, with three out of seven auctions trading-through, all of which saw a positive reading on MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). The 2Y Note auction was on-the-screws, and the remaining 3 auctions (3, 20, and 30-year auctions) tailed.
  • Upcoming Supply: Issuance resumes next week with sales of $58B in 3Y Note, $39B in 10Y Note (reopen), and $22B in 30Y Bond (reopen).
  • January is set to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $20B in 10Y TIPS and $30B FRN for a total of $365B – slightly below the Oct and Nov totals of $369B which were joint-highest since Oct 2021.
  • MNI's review includes a calendar of upcoming auctions and buyback operations.

Please see PDF for full analysis:

MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_2024_12.pdf

 

est table