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AUSTRALIA: Focus On RBA While CPI Impacted Again By Subsidies

AUSTRALIA
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The highlights of the week are the RBA decision on Tuesday and August CPI on Wednesday. The RBA is unanimously expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.35%.

  • Following the decision and statement at 1430 AEST, RBA Governor Bullock will hold a press conference at 1530 AEST. She last spoke on September 5 and since then survey data were soft but labour market and lending data strong. So, we don’t expect that the Board has changed its view that it is too soon to discuss rate cuts.
  • August CPI is released on Wednesday and the headline is forecast to moderate to 2.7% from 3.5% driven by federal government electricity subsidies. They were rolled out in Queensland and WA in July and the rest of the country will receive them in August. As a result, the trimmed mean will be the focus and was at 3.8% in July.
  • Q3 job vacancies are published on Thursday along with the detailed August labour market data set. While vacancies have eased significantly from their post-pandemic peaks, they remain elevated allowing most people to find work. They fell 2.7% q/q in Q2.
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The highlights of the week are the RBA decision on Tuesday and August CPI on Wednesday. The RBA is unanimously expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.35%.

  • Following the decision and statement at 1430 AEST, RBA Governor Bullock will hold a press conference at 1530 AEST. She last spoke on September 5 and since then survey data were soft but labour market and lending data strong. So, we don’t expect that the Board has changed its view that it is too soon to discuss rate cuts.
  • August CPI is released on Wednesday and the headline is forecast to moderate to 2.7% from 3.5% driven by federal government electricity subsidies. They were rolled out in Queensland and WA in July and the rest of the country will receive them in August. As a result, the trimmed mean will be the focus and was at 3.8% in July.
  • Q3 job vacancies are published on Thursday along with the detailed August labour market data set. While vacancies have eased significantly from their post-pandemic peaks, they remain elevated allowing most people to find work. They fell 2.7% q/q in Q2.